Five realities about the new Middle East

Donald Trump is often called a “transactional president,” and this week, that apt description led to success. The ceasefire negotiated between Israel and Hamas was a transaction, and a complicated one at that. It’s worth placing all the caveats that this is only Phase 1 and it may break down or get stuck if the parties renege on their commitments. But the first phase is in fact a plausible pathway to ending the horrific violence in Gaza and represents a chance well worth taking. It reveals five important realities about the Middle East today.

First, Israel is in a commanding position of strength. Dan Senor, a Republican analyst and author, noted on my CNN show last week that the deal was an Israeli plan, or at least an American plan that Israelis could live with. Israel is the power on the ground, and it has become more powerful in the last two years as it defeated an array of its enemies abroad. Nothing is going to happen without its consent. As a practical matter, if you want Israel’s guns to stop firing, you need a plan that Israel can live with.

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