The presidential election isn’t playing out how I thought it would

When President Joe Biden made clear that he was going to run for reelection, I had a sense of what his election strategy was and thought it was an intelligent path to victory. After the chaos of Covid-19 and the administration of former President Donald Trump, Biden would stand for normalcy and a rising tide of good economic news. Trump would divide Republicans, with significant chunks of the party wishing that someone like former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis would be their nominee. Meanwhile, Trump would unite and motivate Democrats, allowing Biden to focus on independent voters in the swing states that threw the Electoral College to Trump in 2016 and to Biden in 2020.

I have to admit, none of this is playing out as I had thought. Trump is now leading in almost all the swing states, and behind those numbers lie even more troubling details. As someone worried about the prospects of a second Trump term, I think it is best to be honest about reality. I understand that polls are not always accurate, but in general they have tended to underestimate Trump’s support, not overestimate it. I doubt that there are many shy Biden voters in the country.

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