The West’s Ukraine strategy is in danger of failing

There’s a famous saying that no military plan survives its first contact with the enemy. The greatest theorist on war, Carl von Clausewitz, often explained that strategy must be dynamic, constantly changing and rejuvenating itself. In his famous treatise “On War,” he wrote that some generals “consider only unilateral action, whereas war consists of a continuous interaction of opposites.” The West needs to take these lessons to heart in its struggle with Russia and adjust its strategy — which is in danger of failing.

The core of the West’s strategy has been two-pronged: to provide Ukraine with arms, training and money, as well as imposing massive sanctions on Russia. That basic idea still makes sense, but the balance needs to change. It is now clear that the economic war against Russia is not working nearly as well as people thought it would. President Vladimir Putin cares less about what these sanctions do to the Russian people than he does about what they do to the Russian state. And thanks to rising energy prices, Bloomberg News projects the Russian government will make considerably more revenue from oil and gas than it did before the war, around $285 billion this year compared with $236 billion in 2021.

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