It’s time to start thinking about the endgame in Ukraine

In 1942, Winston Churchill tried to ready the British people for a long conflict. “This is not the end,” he said, referring to the Allied victory in Egypt. “It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” When we think in those terms, what phase are we witnessing in the war in Ukraine?

We are likely in the middle, explains Gideon Rose, a scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of an excellent book, “How Wars End.” He points out that every war begins similar to a chess game, with a dramatic attack and a defense. If those opening salvos do not produce a decisive victory, the war enters a middle phase, in which both sides try to slog it out to gain advantage on the battlefield. “During the middle phase,” he told me, “neither side is interested in negotiating because each side is trying to win outright, enhance their position on the battlefield, and thus have a stronger position from which to negotiate.” This is the period when emotions run high, making it hard to compromise.

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