Why Trump caved on China

President Trump’s “phase one” trade deal with China is largely a victory for Beijing. Just measure the agreement signed this week against the initial demands made by Washington in a leaked May 2018 document. As the Financial Times concludes, with regard to the central U.S. goals, “After almost two years of negotiations, tariffs and counter-tariffs, Mr. Trump has achieved none of these objectives.”

This outcome is partly a reflection of the two sides’ staying power. China is a one-party state that can take the long view. Trump gambled that he could hurt the Chinese economy enough with tariffs that the pain to American consumers — who have paid for those tariffs — would be worth it. But the president apparently decided that he wanted to smooth the economic waters as he runs for reelection. So he folded.

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